Saturday, November 11, 2017

Milder week ahead.. but changes loom for late week

After a frigid start to November, the weather pattern is expected to moderate this upcoming week with temperatures more typical of mid November. The first 10 days of the month have averaged -8.8C in Winnipeg, some 7C below normal for the time period, and the 7th coldest start to November since records began in 1872. The past week featured the coldest Nov 9th on record when the temperature fell to -23.7C at Winnipeg airport, with a record low maximum of only -11.4C. This cold start is in sharp contrast to November 2016, which had the warmest start to November on record at +7.0C, an astonishing 16C warmer than this year!

The good news is that temperatures will be a lot more tolerable this week as the persistent Arctic airmass moves off allowing milder air to move in. Conditions look pleasant for the Bombers game Sunday with partly sunny skies and afternoon temperatures near -5C with light winds. Milder temperatures will move in for the new week with temperatures climbing above freezing by Tuesday (high of +2C)  Generally seasonal temperatures are expected through mid week (highs near freezing) before a storm system moves in Friday bringing windy and colder conditions by next weekend.  Until then, enjoy the milder weather this week!  

Thursday, November 02, 2017

Get ready folks.. winter arrives this weekend. Snowy Saturday followed by Arctic cold next week

Storm system will spread snow across srn MB Saturday.
10-15 cm is possible along with colder temps behind it
We've had a few tastes of it over the past week or so, but after this weekend, there'll be no doubt about it.. winter will have arrived in Winnipeg and southern MB. A storm system tracking through the Dakotas will spread snow across all of southern MB Friday night into Saturday with a general swath of  5-15 cm possible for many areas including Winnipeg. Winnipeg dodged a bullet Wednesday missing out on an earlier system, but Saturday's system looks more significant and will be harder to miss.  So get ready for a snowy Saturday and poor travelling conditions through the day into Saturday night. And sadly, say goodbye to that bare ground.. this system looks like the start of our winter snowcover that will likely last into next spring! If you haven't done so already, get those snow tires on and get your car winter ready.. or consider postponing travel Saturday if you are not prepared for winter driving yet.

In the wake of Saturday's system, northwest winds will usher in colder air for the new work week, with temperatures some 10C below normal for early November. With fresh snowcover, temperatures will only climb to around -5 to -8C next week, with lows of -15C to possibly -20C! (Average highs right now are +4C, lows of -5C)  Some moderation is possible later next week, but overall, it looks like below normal temperatures will persist well into mid November and likely beyond. This is in sharp contrast to last year when southern MB enjoyed its warmest November on record, with Winnipeg not seeing its first measurable snowfall of the season until Nov 22nd.. the latest start to the snow season ever.  No such luck this year! Winter arrives at least 3 weeks earlier this year.. so get ready!  

(source: Env Canada and CoCoRaHS)

Rossburn ........ 23 cm
Roblin ............ 20 cm
Russell............. 19 cm
Woodlands ..... 14 cm
Brandon .......... 13 cm
Neepawa ........ 11 cm
Winnipeg ........ 10 cm
Pinawa .............  9 cm
Steinbach .......... 7 cm
Virden .............. 7 cm
Portage .,..........  6 cm
Emerson ........... 5 cm

Monday, October 30, 2017

Chilly but dry for Halloween.. snow moves in to start off November along with below normal temps

After a blustery and cold Monday with gusty winds and occasional flurries, things will settle down somewhat Tuesday as a ridge of high pressure crosses southern MB. That will give lighter winds much of the day along with generally fair conditions.. so no rain or snow to contend with for Halloween (unlike last year which saw 16 mm of rain.. Winnipeg's wettest Halloween on record). Temperatures will be on the cold side of normal Tuesday, with afternoon highs only near freezing, and evening temperatures of  -2 to -4C. Winds will also be picking up by late afternoon, with brisk southeast winds of 20 to 40 km/h Halloween evening producing wind chills near -10. Bundle up if you're out with the kiddies!

On Wednesday, a clipper system will track through the Dakotas spreading snow across much of southern MB Wednesday into Wednesday night. At this point, it looks like a general 2 to 5 cm is likely with this system, including Winnipeg, with locally higher amounts of 5-10 cm possible in some areas. Below normal temperatures will persist through at least the first week of November behind this system.. a far different story than last year when Winnipeg and southern MB recorded its warmest November on record.  

Sunday, October 15, 2017

Fabulous week of October weather ahead!

After the first snowfall season in Winnipeg this past Saturday (2 cm on Oct 14th), the weather will be turning decidedly warmer this week as an upper ridge builds over central North America. This will allow temperatures to rise to well above normal levels this week, especially Tuesday and again Thursday and Friday  (Normal highs this week drop to 10C by mid week)   Monday looks wonderful with sunshine mixing with some morning high clouds and afternoon highs around 16C. Winds will be gusty out of the south in the morning (30-50 km/h) shifting to southwest in the afternoon.  Tuesday is looking even warmer with afternoon highs near 20C along with mainly sunny skies and brisk south winds.  Wednesday will see a bit of a cooldown as a NW flow briefly knocks down the upper ridge bringing in slightly cooler air and highs of 15C. Temperatures however will rebound again for Thursday and Friday as the upper ridge rebuilds, with highs in the low 20s (!) along with gusty south winds.  All in all, a fabulous week ahead after a brief taste of winter this past weekend. Enjoy!          

Tuesday, October 03, 2017

Nice start to Thanksgiving weekend.. with a cool finish

The weather is looking good for the start of Thanksgiving weekend as a strengthening southerly flow brings above normal temperatures to southern MB on Saturday. Brisk southerly winds gusting to 50 km/h will send temperatures up close to the 20C mark throughout the RRV, including Winnipeg. Conditions are expected to be dry with sunshine giving way to some afternoon cloudiness.  A cold front will cross the region Saturday night bringing cooler conditions Sunday with brisk west winds and highs around 15C. The good news is that conditions should remain rainfree Sunday with a mix of sun and cloud. Another cold front will push through Sunday night bringing cloudy and colder weather Thanksgiving Monday, with highs only around 9C, brisk NW winds and a chance of showers. Whatever the weather, have a safe and enjoyable holiday weekend!