Sunday, October 15, 2017

Fabulous week of October weather ahead!

After the first snowfall season in Winnipeg this past Saturday (2 cm on Oct 14th), the weather will be turning decidedly warmer this week as an upper ridge builds over central North America. This will allow temperatures to rise to well above normal levels this week, especially Tuesday and again Thursday and Friday  (Normal highs this week drop to 10C by mid week)   Monday looks wonderful with sunshine mixing with some morning high clouds and afternoon highs around 16C. Winds will be gusty out of the south in the morning (30-50 km/h) shifting to southwest in the afternoon.  Tuesday is looking even warmer with afternoon highs near 20C along with mainly sunny skies and brisk south winds.  Wednesday will see a bit of a cooldown as a NW flow briefly knocks down the upper ridge bringing in slightly cooler air and highs of 15C. Temperatures however will rebound again for Thursday and Friday as the upper ridge rebuilds, with highs in the low 20s (!) along with gusty south winds.  All in all, a fabulous week ahead after a brief taste of winter this past weekend. Enjoy!          

Tuesday, October 03, 2017

Nice start to Thanksgiving weekend.. with a cool finish

The weather is looking good for the start of Thanksgiving weekend as a strengthening southerly flow brings above normal temperatures to southern MB on Saturday. Brisk southerly winds gusting to 50 km/h will send temperatures up close to the 20C mark throughout the RRV, including Winnipeg. Conditions are expected to be dry with sunshine giving way to some afternoon cloudiness.  A cold front will cross the region Saturday night bringing cooler conditions Sunday with brisk west winds and highs around 15C. The good news is that conditions should remain rainfree Sunday with a mix of sun and cloud. Another cold front will push through Sunday night bringing cloudy and colder weather Thanksgiving Monday, with highs only around 9C, brisk NW winds and a chance of showers. Whatever the weather, have a safe and enjoyable holiday weekend!    

Thursday, September 14, 2017

Welcome rain finally on the way for southern MB..

It's been awhile, but it finally looks like southern MB will have its first decent rainfall in weeks beginning tomorrow and continuing into early Saturday.  Models are indicating a general 20-35 mm of rain for most areas in southern MB Friday into Saturday morning, with locally heavier amounts of 50 mm thanks to embedded thunderstorms firing up over ND later Friday into Friday evening (spreading into southern MB mainly closer to the US border)

As for Winnipeg.. models are all over the place in terms of amounts here, but generally it looks like 25-40 mm of rain is possible from Friday afternoon into Saturday morning, with the bulk of rain falling Friday night when it could be heavy at times. Some models show heavier amounts due to embedded convection moving in Friday evening (GDPS shows over 70 mm for us!) Here are the various model outputs of rainfall for Winnipeg through midday Saturday.. (12Z or 18Z run)

RDPS... 32 mm
GDPS... 72 mm
NAM.... 43 mm
GFS.... 23 mm
ECMWF.. 26 mm
SREF... 18 mm
GEPS... 41 mm 

Multi-model average is 36 mm. Taking out the highest and lowest values gives a mean of 33 mm. Whatever the case, it'll be the most significant rainfall we've had here in weeks! In Winnipeg, only 2 mm of rain has fallen so far this month, coming off its 13 driest August when only 14 mm fell the entire month. Since July 23rd, Winnipeg airport has received only 21 mm of rain, a mere 18% of the normal 119 mm that should have fallen over that time. We are certainly overdue for a good soaking!     

Sunday, September 03, 2017

Cool windy end to Labour Day weekend, but summer-like warmth to return by end of week

The last long weekend of the summer season will be ending on a cool and windy note as a strong northwest flow pushes in a  fall-like airmass over Manitoba on Monday, along with a few showers. Highs temperatures will only be in the upper teens, with gusty northwest winds up to 60 or 65 km/h at times. Although we can use the rain, rainfall amounts Monday will be light with only a few mm expected in passing gusty showers. Things will clear up Monday night with better weather Tuesday and Wednesday under a mix of sun and cloud and temperatures in the upper teens to 20C.

The second half of the week is looking wonderful as a southerly flow spreads warmer air back into Manitoba. That should bring sunny and dry weather for Thursday through Sunday, along with increasingly warm and windy conditions with temperatures in the mid to upper 20s. In fact, it's possible much of the RRV will be hitting the 30C mark again next weekend, although it will be accompanied by gusty south winds. So if the onset of cooler weather is getting you down, don't worry.. summer is still not quite done yet!
   

Tuesday, July 25, 2017

Seasonably warm weather to close out July.. but 30C heat continues to elude Winnipeg

It will be a nice warm week ahead with high temperatures generally in the mid to upper 20s over the RRV and southern MB. Conditions should be generally dry as well with little in the way of showers or thunderstorms expected through Friday. The next threat for organized showers will be on Saturday as a weak frontal system slides through southern MB. The greatest heat through the end of the month however will still be focused out west over SK and AB which have experienced multiple days of 30C or more this month. In Winnipeg, we have yet to hit the 30C mark in July, even though precipitation has been below average and sunshine has been plentiful. The upper pattern this month has brought the bulk of the heat over western Canada with cooler temperatures over eastern Manitoba into Ontario.  There is a chance Winnipeg may be close to the 30C mark by the end of the week. Since 1872, there have been 12 Julys in Winnipeg that have failed to reach the 30C mark, most recently in 2009. With one week to go, we'll see if July 2017 is added to that list.