Tuesday, November 28, 2006

Storm Total

Official snowfall total here in Charleswood... 15 cm, including 9 cm between noon and 3 pm. Snow stopped around 3:30 pm. Sure looks a lot more Christmassy around here now!

Winter Storm update 3

Snow continues to fall moderate to heavy at times this afternoon in Winnipeg with another 4 or 5 cm since noon, and about 10 or 11 cm since the snow started. Radar shows the bulk of the snow should be moving out of Winnipeg by 3:30 or 4 pm as this storm system moves off to the northeast. By then we'll be close to 15 cm of snow by the time it's all over. Roads are a mess across Winnipeg and Southern Manitoba.. expect a SLOW commute wherever you go.

Winter Storm Update 2

Wow.. radar has really filled in from Winnipeg south, with solid precipitation all the way down to Grand Forks. This means it will be snowing moderately to heavy in Winnipeg all afternoon, perhaps 2-3 cm per hour, so it looks like Winnipeg will end up with about 15 cm of snow by evening.. perhaps up to 20 cm in some areas. (As of noon, I've had about 6 cm so far) Snow should taper off this evening.

Winter Storm Update

I've had about 3-4 cm of snow here in Charleswood this morning as of 9 am mixed in with some ice pellets. Radar shows most of the snow is moving north of Winnipeg, but there's still some more snow and possible freezing rain to the south that will continue to affect us through the day. Overall, it looks like Winnipeg will escape the worst of the storm with snowfall totals approaching 10 cm by evening. Further north and west though (Dauphin area, Interlake) , snowfalls will easily reach 15 or 20 cm with locally higher amounts likely.

Saturday, November 25, 2006

Light snow tonight.. winter storm possible Tuesday.

Looks like a little of the white stuff will be moving into Winnipeg overnight, with a couple of cm possible by morning. That will move out Sunday, but then a significant storm system is forecast to develop over Colorado/Wyoming area Monday and move northeastward into Northwestern Ontario by late Tuesday. This storm could bring significant snow to Winnipeg and Southern Manitoba on Tuesday.. perhaps 15 to 20 cm or more, along with increasing northerly winds that could give near blizzard conditions by Tuesday evening. This one bears watching.. it could be a doozy! Stay tuned..

Wednesday, November 22, 2006

Record warm day signals end of mild spell..

The unseasonably mild weather of the past few days peaked over Winnipeg and the Red River valley today when temperatures soared to record breaking values for Nov 22nd. In Winnipeg, the official high of 12.4C broke the previous record for the day of 9.7C set back in 1998, and also marked the latest date of reaching double digits in November. (prev record Nov 21 1904 11.1c) Further south, Emerson was the national hot spot with a high of 14.9C. Unfortunately the record breaking mild weather will be coming to an abrupt end as much colder weather moves in tonight. Snow is possible in Winnipeg by Thursday afternoon into Thursday night although it appears the bulk of the snow from this next system will be falling north of Winnipeg through the interlake and central MB areas.

Tuesday, November 21, 2006

Beauty day!

Wow.. what a beautiful day in Southern Manitoba. Nov 21st and we have sunny skies, light winds, no snow on the ground and temperatures up to +5C as of noon, going up to 7 or 8C this afternoon. Seems like we’re getting October in November, after getting November in October! Record high for today is 11.1C back in 1904, which by the way is the latest date in November that Winnipeg has hit double digits. See November record list. Looks like the nice weather will continue through Thursday.. then a cooldown for Friday into the weekend as a large Arctic airmass floods into the western Prairies beginning mid week. By Sunday, models are indicating much colder air flooding into southern Manitoba with temperatures likely in the minus teens. Might see some snow by Friday and Saturday as well, but at this point.. models not indciating any large amounts. We'll see.. seems like we're overdue for some snow by now..

By the way, it was kind of funny to watch all those football fans dressed up in parkas and toques for last night’s Monday night football game in Jacksonville Florida. Temperature at game time was a bone-chilling PLUS 8C! Brrrr! ;) (I know, I know.. that’s cold for Florida.. but still, it’s amazing what you get used to..)

Sunday, November 19, 2006

Mild week ahead

It's going to be a mild week over Winnipeg with temperatures expected to reach above freezing values through Thursday. Monday will see gusty southerly winds up to 60 km/h pushing temperatures up to the +5c mark, under partly to mostly cloudy skies. The rest of the week should see a continuation of the mild weather, with daily highs in the +5 to +8c range.. about 10 degrees above average for this time of year. Long range models continue to show the possibility of a pattern change to colder and snowier weather by the end of the week into the weekend. Stay tuned..

Friday, November 17, 2006

Clearing today.. nice weekend ahead.

Satellite photos show nothing but sunny skies west of Winnipeg this morning, and this clearing should move into Winnipeg from the west this afternoon heralding the arrival of a fine looking weekend with sunny skies and mild temperatures..just in time for Grey Cup festivities. The sunshine will help melt the coating of ice left from last evening's freezing rain and ice pellets, leaving dry conditions for the weekend. Weather should be ideal for Sunday's Grey Cup with clear skies, light winds and afternoon highs of +5C. Game time temperatures will likely drop to the freezing mark, but with the light winds, conditions should be very comfortable for the game. The good news is that the nice weather should last much of next week before a potential change to colder and snowier weather by next weekend. Hey, it has to come sooner or later!

Wednesday, November 15, 2006

Updated Grey Cup forecast

Well, it's becoming virtually unanimous that the weather should be just about ideal for Sunday's Grey Cup in Winnipeg. All models are indicating dry conditions for the game, with generally clear skies and near to above freezing temperatures at game time. The only question mark is the winds.. will they be light or gusty? Earlier models were indicating the potential for strong southerly winds developing by game time Sunday evening, however the latest models now delay these strongest winds until Monday (and by then they could be very strong.. perhaps 50 to 70 km/h). As a result, winds should be fairly light for the game Sunday evening which would make conditions more comfortable for players and fans alike. The good news is that no snow is expected through Sunday so snow and ice will not be a factor to contend with.

Rob's updated Grey Cup forecast..

Mainly clear skies. No precipitation. Dry field conditions. Sunday afternoon high near +4C falling to 0C at game time. Winds light.

Tuesday, November 14, 2006

Grey Cup Forecast

Well, it’s looking increasingly likely that the weather should be nearly ideal for Sunday’s Grey Cup in Winnipeg. Ensemble models are indicating dry weather (no precipitation) for Sunday along with above normal temperatures, likely above freezing at game time. The only weather factor for Sunday appears to be the potential for gusty southerly winds by game time which, if they develop, will add a chill factor to the otherwise mild temperatures. The good news is that we should remain snow free through this week into the weekend, so there shouldn’t be any snow or ice on the ground to contend with. (currently there is no snow on the ground in Winnipeg and we should remain that way right through Sunday) Overall, it’s looking very good for this time of year in Winnipeg.

Rob’s Grey Cup outlook..

Partly cloudy skies, no precipitation, game time temperature near +3C remaining steady through the evening. Gusty south winds 30 to 50 km/h. Wind chill -2C.

I will update this forecast as the week goes on with any new information that becomes available.

Sunday, November 12, 2006

Snow free all week?

Well it looks like the system that was threatening snow for us by Tuesday is going to track further north, bringing accumulating snow to central MB and not much south. The storm track has been bringing most systems and snowfall through central MB over the past week, and it looks like this trend will continue this week. As result, Winnipeg may stay snow free all week, and possibly through Grey Cup weekend.  In fact, at this point, Grey Cup Sunday is looking pretty good in Winnipeg with long range ensembles pointing to a good chance of dry weather, along with temperatures of between 0 and -5c for game time.  Let's see if that forecast holds as we get closer to the weekend.

By the way, I've added links to the NAEPS ensemble map products recently added to EC's weatheroffice page. This is a joint forecast system between Canada, the US and Mexico to come up with more accurate (or perhaps less inaccurate is a better way of saying it) and more consistent long range forecasts over North America. They have some interesting products and charts which may provide a little more insight into how the weather may (or may not) evolve over the next couple of weeks.  These EPS product links are found under Rob's Obs "maps" and "forecasts"  drop down menus.   

Wednesday, November 08, 2006

It's gone! (for now..)

After three days of mild weather, plus some rain and drizzle, the 10-15 cm pre-Halloween snowfall has pretty much disappeared in Winnipeg.  Generally, a 10 cm snow base at the end of October stays for the winter, however three days of above freezing temperatures (including staying above freezing at night) has given us a reprieve from the permanent snow cover and icy roads.  No significant accumulating snow is expected in the Winnipeg area over the next few days and through the weekend, but then some long range models are indicating the potential for an Alberta clipper system bringing some accumulating snow to Southern MB by next Tuesday or Wednesday.  So enjoy the sight of those bare lawns while you can.. It's only a matter of time before they disappear again!   

Sunday, November 05, 2006

Melting away..

Ahhh.. feels just like spring out there today.. +5C and snow melting everywhere.. Note those 10-13C temperatures in Saskatchewan this afternoon.  We should stay mild through Wednesday before cooling off a little by the end of the week. Maybe this early snowfall will melt away after all!!  (although we probably would need some rain to get rid of it completely..) 

Friday, November 03, 2006

Warm up next week..

Models are indicating a break in the cold weather that has persisted over the eastern Prairies over the past few days.  In fact, Winnipeg has been below freezing since midnight of Oct 30th,  5 straight days below freezing!  (normal highs are still around +4C for early November)  


Relief is expected beginning this weekend as a more zonal flow overspreads the Prairies, bringing in milder Pacific air from the west. In fact, temperatures in southern AB are forecast to hit 20c by Monday!  In Winnipeg, this will finally mean temperatures climbing above the freezing mark by Sunday, and around 5 or 6c by Tuesday.  (EC currently forecasting +10C for Tuesday.. but that appears a bit optimistic given the snowcover still on the ground.)  Hopefully the mild temperatures will be enough to significantly reduce the snowcover that has arrived a little too early in Winnipeg this year!

Wednesday, November 01, 2006



One can say that Winnipeg transitioned from summer through fall into winter during October 2006, all within 4 short weeks. The month began on a sunny and warm note with temperatures soaring to a balmy 27C on the 1st. The first week of October was mild with temperatures in the mid to upper teens, and generally sunny skies. The transition to fall occurred over the Thanksgiving weekend, when a warm start to the holiday of 24C on the Saturday (8th) plunged to the low teens by Sunday and Monday. That would be the end of 20 degree temperatures in Winnipeg, and in fact, temperatures struggled to even reach double digits most of the remainder of the month as a below normal temperature pattern finally became established over the eastern Prairies... the first time since May that a prolonged stretch of below normal temperature had occurred in Winnipeg. The cold unsettled weather brought the season's first snowfall to the city on the 10th when rain changed to wet snow in the afternoon giving 1 or 2 cm accumulation. A deep low pressure system over Northwestern Ontario brought strong northwesterly winds to Southern Manitoba on the night of the 12th into the 13th, with wind gusts to 80 km/h producing window damage in downtown Winnipeg. Generally cool and unsettled conditions continued through the 23rd with occasional minor snowfalls before a couple of mild pleasant late fall days from the 25th to 27th. That would prove to be the last of the pleasant fall weather however as a storm system over North Dakota brought the season's first significant snowfall to Southern Manitoba on the 30th with 10 to 15 cm of snow in the Winnipeg area. This resulted in the deepest snowcover for Halloween in many years.. likely since 1972.

Overall the month averaged about 1.2 degrees below normal at my location (1.8 degrees below at Winnipeg airport) marking the first below normal calendar month this year since February. Precipitation totaled 27 mm at my location.. with 8 mm of rain and 19 cm of snow. Average October precipitation in Winnipeg is about 31 mm of rain and 5 cm of snow.. so rainfall this month was well below normal (again) while snowfall was well above. Overall, the monthly total precipitation of 27 mm was again below normal for the month, marking the 7th consecutive month with below normal precipitation in Winnipeg.

All in all.. a cool unsettled month ending with an early start to winter!