Friday, October 28, 2016

Soggy Halloween on tap.. otherwise staying mild through first part of November

 Milder than normal weather is expected to continue over southern Manitoba through the first part of November, with no real signs of winter weather just yet. Temperatures are expected to range some 5-10C above normal for early November with highs of 8-15C through the first week (normal highs for November in Winnipeg drop from +5C on Nov 1st to +1C on Nov 10th) In particular, Thursday Nov 3rd is looking very mild with highs of 15C possible for Winnipeg and southern MB.

Generally dry weather is expected through the period, with the exception of one day.. unfortunately falling on Halloween. A low pressure system is forecast to track across North Dakota next Monday Oct 31st spreading an area of rain across southern MB. This system could bring 10-25 mm over portions of the Red River valley likely starting Monday morning and continuing in the evening before tapering off by midnight. Temperatures will be around +7C Halloween evening.. so conditions will be relatively mild, but wet.        

UPDATE: Winnipeg airport recorded 15.8 mm of rain on Oct 31st, making it the city's rainiest Oct 31st on record. The previous rainfall record for Oct 31 was 11.6 mm in 2000. Another 1.7 mm fell early this morning for a storm total of 17.5 mm. Rainfalls of 15 mm or more become less frequent in Winnipeg as we get into November, especially after the first week (see Nov precip records for Winnipeg). But they have occurred as late as December with 21.8 mm on Dec 2nd 1982, and an unusual 15.2 mm on Dec 22 1877 (during the freakishly warmest December on record in Winnipeg)   The rainiest November day in Winnipeg was on Nov 17 1918 when an astounding 44.5 mm of rain fell, with 50.9 mm over the 2 day span of Nov 16-17.